Why are prices rising in Kazakhstan?
At the end of November, inflation stood at 12.3%, above the forecast range announced by the National Bank at the beginning of the year. Significant price increases in 2025 have been felt by all Kazakhstanis.
Economist Marat Kairlenov believes that the National Bank has little understanding of how to address inflation in the country. He argues that double-digit inflation, rising interest rates, and long-term increases in deposit costs indicate that the financial sector is unsure of a rapid price decline. Furthermore, a sharp reduction in government spending in 2026 (minus 10 trillion tenge) will hurt domestic demand, leading to an increase in non-performing loans—people will be unable to repay their bank loans.
The expert believes that the National Bank’s current policy could lead to a banking crisis in 2026 and serious problems in the country’s economy and social sphere.
Video excerpt from the TENGE TALKS channel.
